Sunday, September 12, 2010

International markets have no confidence in our leaders - isn't it time we did something?


By Jennifer O'Connell

Brian Lenihan gave me one of my few laughs last week.  Speaking to the Guardian newspaper, he insisted that there were no easy fixes for "the size of the bust in Ireland".

Disappointingly, though, he wasn’t talking about new government initiatives to support Ireland’s more generously-endowed female populace. Rather, ‘the bust’ – it turns out – is the latest and the snappiest in a long line of euphemisms to describe the, erm, situation variously known as the ‘current economic climate’, ‘the emergency’, or ‘Lehman Brothers’.

"We will not be distracted by those who suggest that there is some kind of quick fix where you can bust the country and magically stage a resurrection," the Minister for Finance insisted.

Sadly, though, his own party seems convinced otherwise.

Fianna Fail clearly does believe there is a quick fix which can do exactly that – bust the country and then stage a resurrection (not to save the country, obviously – they all know the country’s bust beyond saving. But save the party.)

And the name of that quick fix, the UHU glu of Irish politics, is Brian Lenihan.

No sooner had Lenihan got off the phone from his subsequent interview with Sean O’Rourke - in which he revealed that his pancreatic cancer, while still in his system, represents no “clear and present danger” to his health, and coyly acknowledged that every politician would like to be leader of their party - than the inevitable excited chatter started.

“Lenihan leaves door open on future bid for the leadership ,” the Irish Independent claimed in a piece quoting approving backbenchers. Elsewhere in the newspaper, Fionnan Sheahan speculated that “the prospects of Brian Lenihan running for the Fianna Fail leadership increased considerably yesterday.”

The Herald picked up the theme, noting approvingly how “in a rare display of PR adroitness, Lenihan has even managed to turn pancreatic cancer into a political advantage…. His party needs him -- and as far as many people are concerned, his country does too.”

Brian Lenihan has long been marketed as the Fianna Fail leader-in-waiting. If you like Bertie, you’ll love Brian L, the spin goes. He’s like a brighter, younger, more sophisticated version. With better hair.

There was a time when I might have bought into the notion of Brian Lenihan as the Fianna Fail party’s brightest young thing. He made a competent Minister for Justice. He behaved with dignity when his cancer was diagnosed last January, and has done an admirable job of not managing to allow a terrible, debilitating, and all-encompassing illness interfere with his job.

But any lingering trace of respect I might have had for Lenihan – and, by extension, his party, since he was the only thing left in it to respect - evaporated last week, as I watched the RTE Freefall programme, which documented the collapse of Anglo Irish Bank and the Irish economy.

The moment the UHU came unstuck was when Lenihan described how the ECB President, Jean Claude Trichet, hadn’t been able to reach him on September 27, 2008, because he was at the races in Gowran.

And then he sniggered, like a four-year-old who’d been caught with his grubby fingers in the Black Magic box.

This disconnect with reality – from someone who got us into this mess and is now charged with getting us out of it – would be utterly astounding in any context other than the Fianna Fail party.

From Fianna Fail, however, glib is as good as it gets.

Starting with Bertie Ahern’s admonishment to those who dared to question the ‘economic miracle’ that they should all “go and commit suicide”, to Brian Cowen’s ill-tempered refusal to engage on any level with his electorate, Lenihan’s party has shown a willingness to genuinely serve the needs of the country last seen in the barmy former leader of Turkmenistan, Saparmurat Niyazov.

So why should we expect the progeny of one of Fianna Fail’s most established dynasties to behave any differently? Why should we expect him to miss out on the chance of a day at the races with his property developer pals, merely because our banks were on the verge of going bust? Why should we expect him to say anything more than the €25 billion to €30 billion or – what’s another ten - €40 billion costs associated with Anglo are “annoying and infuriating”?

Why should we expect him to be anything more than “a bit” concerned that large swathes of the population are genuinely and understandably terrified that Anglo may now be about to bankrupt us?

And how could the markets possibly have any confidence in the ability of Ireland’s dream team of Cowen and Lenihan getting us out of the mess they caused when they unconditionally guaranteed the banks, knowing Anglo was all but bust?

The answer, of course, is that they don’t.

Hours after Lenihan told his not-exactly hilarious anecdote about being out of range at the races while his country’s banking system teetered on the brink of collapse, the Wall Street Journal penned an article in which it uncompromisingly summarised the mess we were in.

Ireland had to go to the European Central Bank, it reported, to seek help stabilising “tottering Anglo Irish Bank, hoping to end a recurring banking nightmare that has sparked fresh fears about its national finances. Struggling with the euro zone’s biggest budget deficit relative to its gross domestic product at more than 14 per cent last year, Irish authorities are also grappling with the ballooning cost of bailing out the banks, especially state-owned Anglo Irish—a bill that has already hit €33 billion, or roughly 20% of Ireland’s GDP.”

The same morning, the paper also published an investigation showing how the European banking stress tests had understated the level of debt being shouldered by governments.

By the time the markets opened last Tuesday, bond investors were voting with their yields. By lunchtime, we were paying interest rates on ten-year debt more than 4 per cent higher than those being asked of Germany, at over 6.1 per cent. The haemhorrage only stopped when the ECB – which, only days before, had told us we were on our own - stepped in and bought up some surplus bonds itself, temporarily propping the price back up.

This week the markets told us in no uncertain terms that international investors have no confidence in our leadership – or in their ability to get us out of this mess.

Unlike Lenihan, we can’t turn our mobiles to silent and pretend this isn’t happening.

This column first appeared in The Sunday Business Post on September 12, 2010




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